The Guardian (no, not the Ultima VII villain) has an article (saw it on Slashdot) called Do your bit for the games industry this Christmas - which is also a way to avoid bad games.
Now, it’s probably an oversimplification, but it’s certainly stuff to think about. Besides, there’s an important question: who says that games bought for Christmas have got to be Christmas games? You know, you don’t die if you buy / give / are given a 2-months old game - or if you buy that Christmas blockbuster in February, after it’s been patched (if it’s a PC game) and is probably cheaper - not to mention all the reviews you can read before buying it.
I’d also suggest avoiding sequels and clones, but that’s probably asking too much. 
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Unfortunately, I’m thinking of both Soul Calibur III and Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence…
But, then again, the latter probably won’t be out before the big March launch bash, so that’s not a problem